IMPACT / RISK
The risk and impact assessment1 process work through taking into account the magnitudes and likelihoods of the impacts associated with the hazards identified previously. Evaluate exposure to climate hazards and assessing the significance of the assessed risks to the success of the project.
BARCELONA RESEARCH SITES
In the case study of Barcelona, a comprehensive multi-risk assessment was performed concerning several sectors and risk targets exposed to urban flooding. Risk assessment in Barcelona considered direct and indirect damage, as such as, tangible and intangible damages. Direct damages were also represented through qualitative (for the intangible impacts) and quantitative (for tangible impacts) maps achieved by sectorial and integrated detailed and calibrated models.
In this web-portal, hazard, vulnerability and risk maps elaborated for current (Baseline) and future (Business as Usual or BAU and Adaptation) scenarios are presented. These flood maps related to pluvial and coastal flooding focused on the following potential impacts:
1 Risk for people (Stability of pedestrians and vehicles)
2 Economic damage related to properties
3 Economic damage related to vehicles
4 Surface traffic disruption
5 Waste containers stability
6 Flooding of coastal critical infrastructures and services
1. Risk for people (Stability of pedestrians and vehicles)
|
Impact analysis
|
People’ safety may be compromise due to their own stability when exposed to a water flow, but also when a vehicle lose its stability its occupants are at risk and so pedestrians may be hit with these massive debris.
|
|
Risk Assessment
|
The risk assessment conducted here focuses on the potential intangible damages caused to residents due to pluvial floods
|
|
Uncertainty
|
One of the main uncertainties is the criteria adopted to define vulnerability levels, which moreover vary over time and the maps should be updated accordingly.
|
|
Maps description
|
The Risk map is developed by overlapping the Hazard map and the Vulnerability map. The result of this process is a qualitative risk map establishing three levels of risk in specific areas of the city for either pedestrians or vehicles based on the combination of the level of hazard produced by the pluvial flood and the level of the vulnerability (Figure 1).
 
Figure 1 Risk map concept as a combination of hazard and vulnerability.
A complete description of the risk assessment conducted for peoples and vehicles is provided in the deliverable D3.4 of the project RESCCUE in which these maps were previously developed. However, a summary of the different steps of the risk assessment process is presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Risk concept definition and datasets required in each stage of the human risk assessment.
|
|
Projection and reference system
|
SGR ETRS 1989 UTM (31N)
|
|
Type
|
Public
|
|
License
|
Free
|
|
Data set (Raster/shp )
|
Geo-referenced information obtained
|
| Main participants |
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Edwar Forero-Ortiz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Beniamino Russo, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Luca Locatelli, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Dani Yubero, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Maria Guerrero-Hidalga, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
|
2. Economic damage related to properties
|
Impact analysis
|
The estimation of pluvial floods damages for properties has been undertaken following the methodology proposed in Martínez-Gomariz et al. (2019). This methodology is based on the conceptual model presented in Figure 1, which represents the way floodwater enters into the property and how it is expected to distribute among the property floors. This model, in order to be implemented, has required the development of specific damage curves for Barcelona which are presented in Martínez-Gomariz et al. (2020).
Figure 1 Conceptual model of properties flooding
References:
Martínez-Gomariz, E., Guerrero-Hidalga, M., Russo, B., Yubero, D., Gómez, M., Castán, S., 2019. Desarrollo y aplicación de curvas de daño y estanqueidad para la estimación del impacto económico de las inundaciones en zonas urbanas españolas. Ing. del agua 23, 229–245. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2019.12137
Martínez-Gomariz, E., Forero-Ortiz, E., Guerrero-Hidalga, M., Castán, S., Gómez, M., 2020. Flood Depth‒Damage Curves for Spanish Urban Areas. Sustainability 12, 2666. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072666
|
|
Risk Assessment
|
In this case, quantitative risk assessment has been performed. The risk is the aggregated amount of economic losses in Barcelona for a certain flood frequency.
|
|
Uncertainty
|
The uncertainty is mainly due to the rainfall distribution, which was supposed to be evenly distributed for the entire city.
|
|
Maps description
|
The damage maps presented here are the result of the application of this model, and represents the expected properties damaged after a specific flood occurs. Further details are provided in the deliverable D3.4 of the project RESCCUE.
|
|
Projection and reference system
|
SGR ETRS 1989 UTM (31N)
|
|
Type
|
Public?
|
|
License
|
Free
|
|
Data set (Raster/shp )
|
geo-referenced information obtained
|
| Main participants |
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Edwar Forero-Ortiz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Beniamino Russo, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Luca Locatelli, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Maria Guerrero-Hidalga, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Dani Yubero, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Salvador Castan, Agencia Pericial (Insurance Company) (AGPERICIAL)
|
3. Economic damage related to vehicles
|
Impact analysis
|
The methodology developed provides an overall estimation of the expected economic losses in the city for a specific flood frequency.
|
|
Risk Assessment
|
The flood risk for parked vehicles has been considered in this study as direct tangible damages. The Expected Annual Damage may be obtained in a second stage, by analyzing computed damages for floods related to rainfalls of different return periods.
For further information see. Martínez-Gomariz, E., Gómez, M., Russo, B., Sánchez, P., Montes, J.-A., 2019. Methodology for the damage assessment of vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas. J. Flood Risk Management 12, e12475. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12475
|
|
Uncertainty
|
The location of the vehicles is the main uncertainty of this study as we are dealing with movable vehicles.
|
|
Maps description
|
The damage maps presented here represents the expected area where damaged vehicles may be found after a specific flood occurs. Further details are provided in the deliverable D3.4 of the project RESCCUE in which the damage assessment methodology was previously developed.
|
|
Projection and reference system
|
SGR ETRS 1989 UTM (31N)
|
|
Type
|
Public
|
|
License
|
Free
|
|
Data set (Raster/shp )
|
geo-referenced information obtained / used in the study
|
| Main participants |
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Edwar Forero-Ortiz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Beniamino Russo, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Luca Locatelli, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Maria Guerrero-Hidalga, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Dani Yubero, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
|
4. Surface traffic disruption
5. Waste containers stability
|
Impact analysis
|
Such type of massive debris carried by floodwaters can further constrict a narrow street and increase flooding, thereby creating a closed basin with no outlet for runoff and exacerbating the effects of flooding. This hazard is greatest upstream of culverts, bridges, or other places where debris can collect. On the other hand, inlets and sewers can become clogged with solid waste if it comes out of the container after it loses stability, thereby worsening the drainage system and contributing to exacerbate the flood impacts. Besides, the loss of containers’ stability may cause cascading effects such as traffic disruption, waste collection disruption and potential sewer blockage.
|
|
Risk Assessment
|
The risk assessment conducted here is based on the specific containers exposed to a certain level of hazard (i.e. water depth and velocity). Therefore areas of high risk indicate that a great amount of containers are expected to lose their stability.
A summary of the methodology proposed here is presented in Figure 1. The complete study in which these maps are based on is described in Martínez-Gomariz et al. (2020). Further details are provided in the deliverable D3.4 of the project RESCCUE.
Figure 1 Methodology workflow and Potential cascading effects and risks related to containers instabilities
References:
Martínez‐Gomariz, E., Russo, B., Gómez, M., Plumed, A., 2020. An approach to the modelling of stability of waste containers during urban flooding. J. Flood Risk Manag. 13, jfr3.12558. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12558
|
|
Uncertainty
|
The main uncertainty in this study is the filling degree of each container. Although three different scenarios in terms of filling degree are considered, the assumption of all of them at a time to be filled at the same degree implies an important uncertainty.
|
|
Maps description
|
The maps presented here represent the containers that may lose their stability according to different types of modes of instability (i.e. buoyancy, sliding and toppling) and based on different filling scenarios (empty, half full, totally full).
|
|
Projection and reference system
|
SGR ETRS 1989 UTM (31N)
|
|
Type
|
Public
|
|
License
|
Free
|
|
Data set (Raster/shp )
|
Shapefile
|
| Main participants |
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre
Beniamino Russo, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Dani Yubero, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
|
6. Flooding of coastal critical infrastructures and services
|
Impact analysis
|
Impact analysis was performed crossing GIS flood maps and the location of the vulnerable elements
|
|
Risk Assessment
|
Risk assessment was based only on the exposure assessment of vulnerable elements respect to sea level rose produced by future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with the horizon of 2100.
|
|
Uncertainty
|
The main uncertainty in this study is related to climate predictions.
|
|
Maps description
|
The maps presented here represent the vulnerable elements potentially exposed to flooding due to sea level rise for the future considered scenarios.
|
|
Projection and reference system
|
SGR ETRS 1989 UTM (31N)
|
|
Type
|
Public
|
|
License
|
Free
|
|
Data set (Raster/shp )
|
Shapefile
|
| Main participants |
Beniamino Russo, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Luca Locatelli, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
Dani Yubero, Aquatec, SUEZ Water Advanced Solutions
|
